Focus

The set of new easing measures by the European Central Bank (ECB) was at the lower end of elevated markets expectations, but does not change our expectation of a continued moderate economic recovery The ECB announced various easing measures yesterday, but most were just at the lower end of expectations:… Read More »

With the Federal Reserve starting on a series of Fed Fund rate hikes from 16 December 2015, US money and credit markets will be on the path towards normalisation after seven years of abnormally low rates.     This is a sign that, despite the weakness in emerging economies, the… Read More »

An increase in terrorism, Islamist or otherwise, would by itself be unlikely to affect European sovereign ratings. That said, terrorism could eventually start to weigh on some of the factors we look at when we rate sovereigns, particularly our assessment of a country’s growth and fiscal prospects The multiple and… Read More »

Amid the recent global financial market turmoil, both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have downplayed the near-term economic recovery in the Eurozone This will no doubt have dented investors’ confidence, especially in the wake of the accommodative monetary policies being implemented by the ECB.… Read More »

The global economy continues to be buffeted by the series of financial shocks and knock-on uncertainty since last spring, with China supplanting the Fed’s decision-making as the main source of concern. Recent economic momentum in the U.S. has seemed softer, possibly delaying the Fed’s “lift-off” into 2016 Heatmap: Roubini’s 2016… Read More »

If a government or a too big to fail government bank can borrow near 0%, then theoretically it should have no problem making a profit or increasing real economic growth I have been increasingly suspicious since late 2011 that Sir Thomas Gresham (1519-1579) may be the modern John Maynard Keynes.… Read More »

Investors would do well to beware of portfolios with high beta but no alpha, as being bullish in a bull market is neither skillful nor financially healthy The stock market has landed a punch in recent months. As we assess the damage and consider what might come next, let us… Read More »

The IMF is predicting global growth this year to be slightly lower (at 3.1%) than last, and then strengthen to 3.6% in 2016. Within this, they are expecting a pickup in developed world growth while the developing world will slow. The IMF give a number of factors as to why… Read More »

Many characteristics make bank loans stand out from their fixed income peers, but here are three key factors we believe everyone should know about bank loan investing 1. Bank loans do not have interest rate duration. Bank loan interest payments are typically based on a spread above three-month LIBOR. These… Read More »

Our global growth baseline is an unsynchronised expansion, with pockets of recession, but a great deal depends on how the U.S. economy copes with the coming increase in interest rates Heatmap: Roubini’s end-2015 Nominal Policy Rate Forecasts (%) Source: Roubini Global Economics. Key Macro Theme 1: Our Fed Call and… Read More »